This week, our In Focus section highlights findings from Information Services’ (HMAIS’s) review of 2024 statutory filings submitted to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). These filings provide a nationwide view of Medicaid managed care plan profitability and medical loss ratios (MLRs) across 221 plans operating in 39 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.
These data build upon and offer additional context to a previous conducted by HMA and Wakely, an HMA Company, of increasing post-pandemic financial pressures driven by acuity increases resulting from the continuous eligibility unwinding and increases in behavioral health and home and community-based services access and utilization.
Medicaid Managed Care Underwriting Gains and Losses
As state Medicaid programs have increasingly moved from fee-for-service to managed care, a foundational assumption has been that efficient managed care organizations (MCOs) reduce waste and deliver high quality, cost-effective healthcare services. This transition has made Medicaid plan performance and sustainability a central focus for policymakers and actuaries alike.
Medicaid capitation rates must be actuarially sound, which means they must be projected to cover all “reasonable, appropriate, and attainable costs,” including medical administrative costs, plus a margin for insurance risk, even for nonprofit plans. According to the Society of Actuaries 2024 , average underwriting margins in Medicaid rates ranged from 0.35 percent to 3.15 percent, with a consistent average between 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent.
However, actual results often deviate from projections for reasons that may be challenging to predict. Rate setting is an inherently forward-looking process, and even with conservative assumptions, unexpected shifts in enrollment, acuity, or service utilization can lead to significant deviations from projected results. Retrospective reviews show variability in margins over time (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Historical Medicaid MCO Net Gains/Losses, 2012‒2024 (39 States, DC)

Based on HMAIS’s analysis, Medicaid MCOs sustained modest but steady gains from 2012 through 2017. After a decline between 2016 and 2019, margins rebounded to approximately 3 percent until 2022, narrowed in 2023 to 1.9 percent, and turned negative in 2024 at -0.9 percent.
For the first time in over a decade, more plans experienced losses than gains in 2024 (see Figure 2), with only 42 percent reporting positive margins, down from the decade high of 84 percent in 2022. This shift raises critical questions about sustainability and participation in Medicaid managed care.
Figure 2. Medicaid Managed Plans Likelihood of Gain, 2012‒2024 (39 States, DC)

The “Likelihood of Gain” chart tracks the percentage of Medicaid managed care plans reporting an underwriting gain each year from 2012 to 2024. For most years, the likelihood that a plan posted a gain was relatively high, typically between 60 percent and 80 percent. The probability reached a recent peak in 2022, with 84 percent of plans reporting gains, and remained elevated in 2023 (74 percent). In 2024, however, the likelihood of gain dropped sharply to just 42 percent, the lowest level in the 12-year period.
Risk Corridors, Medical Loss Ratios, and Structural Policy Shifts
MLRs show the portion of plan revenue spent on medical care as compared with the costs to operate the plan and the underwriting gain or loss described previously. When MLRs rise or fall, it can be an indication that medical cost trends experienced by health plans differ from the assumptions used by state rate setting actuaries. High MLRs are the key driver of underwriting gains, and low MLRs are associated with higher profitability. All states report MLRs to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), and some enforce minimum MLRs with a remittance provision, requiring plans to return funds if their MLR goes below a certain level.
Risk corridors are another tool that states use to manage financial volatility. These mechanisms share gains or losses between plans and states when results deviate significantly from pricing assumptions, offering protection to MCOs and the state alike, in contrast to minimum MLR provisions with a remittance provision, which only protects the state. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many states implemented or expanded risk corridors to recoup overpayments because of lower utilization. Some risk corridors were set retroactively—a practice CMS now prohibits.
In 2024, MLRs reached a decade high of 90.8 percent, as indicated by HMAIS’s analysis. Driving this increase were heightened utilization rates, increased enrollee acuity, and the end of continuous Medicaid coverage protections in 2023. As healthier, lower-cost members left Medicaid, plans were left serving a more complex population with higher per-member costs. Inflation in medical costs—especially for behavioral health and home and community-based services—added more pressure. Delayed or avoided care during the COVID-19 pandemic may also have played a role, as members sought more services in 2022‒2024, resulting in a surge in utilization greater than what was priced into rates.
Many states put risk corridors in place to stabilize margins from 2020 to 2022, which may have contributed to the tight band of outcomes around the high underwriting gains in that period. However, many states have been them for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Without these protections, plans may face greater exposure to underpayment in 2025 and 2026 if cost trends continue to outpace rate assumptions.
What to Watch
Rate setting conversations between states and plans for 2026 are happening now, and in many cases they are quite challenging. In addition to meeting actuarial soundness requirements, states also must balance their budgets, and some may be facing limitations on their traditionally used tools.
Looking ahead, it will be increasingly important that states and plans partner to find cost savings that can ensure the program’s long-term sustainability.
A subscription to HMAIS provides access to comprehensive financial intelligence on Medicaid managed care. Far beyond surface-level snapshots, HMAIS delivers health plan-level financial performance metrics, enrollment trends, and state policy developments that directly shape rate setting and operational strategy. Whether you’re a state official, health plan executive, or policy strategist, HMAIS provides the financial clarity and policy context needed to anticipate regulatory shifts, benchmark performance, and make confident, data-driven decisions.
For questions about the analysis discussed in this article, contact our experts below.

